泰國也有領匯事件

Fermenting trouble
Nov 24th 2005 BANGKOK
From The Economist
The unsettling effect of shelving two share offerings

DRIVING past the Stock Exchange of Thailand, you never know what you might see. A few months ago, orange-robed Buddhist monks were protesting against the planned listing of Thai Beverages, the country's biggest brewer and distiller. More recently, left-wing activists marched against the partial privatisation, through a public offering, of Egat, the state-owned electricity monopoly. Indeed, these days, demonstrators seem more interested in Thai stocks than investors are.
In 2003 Thai stocks were among the world's top performers. The main market index more than doubled, as the economy grew by 6.9% and finally shook off the torpor that had set in after the crash of 1997. Alas, Thailand has since suffered a string of misfortunes: bird flu, last year's tsunami, a prolonged drought and an intensifying insurgency in some Muslim areas. Meanwhile, dearer oil has pushed inflation up, prompting the central bank to raise interest rates repeatedly. Expensive oil imports have also weighed on the current account, and so on the baht.
In the first quarter of this year, the economy even shrank slightly. Over the whole year, it might grow by some 4%, far less than optimists had expected. In August consumer confidence hit its lowest in three years. All this gloom has affected share prices too. The market looks like ending the year where it began, 15% below the peak it reached early last year.
The protests have not helped. The listing of Thai Beverages, originally scheduled for the middle of the year, would have been the biggest-ever flotation of a private Thai firm, worth roughly 40 billion baht ($980m). But the World Health Organisation ranks Thais as the world's fourth-keenest drinkers, and temperance groups, supported by Buddhist clergy, argued that the listing would foster further boozing. The stock exchange and its regulator have not yet dared approve it.
The government's attempt to sell a stake in Egat has dragged on even longer. It first postponed the offering last year, after protests by the company's staff. As a sweetener, it raised workers' salaries and reserved shares for them, before reviving the sale earlier this year. It had planned to sell 25% of Egat this month, for 33 billion baht or so. But at the last minute, a court put the listing off again, to consider activists' charge that the decree authorising the sale violates the constitution. The government still hopes that the sale, and the rest of its privatisation programme, will go ahead—but the court has not even set a date for a ruling.
On the other hand, Thai stocks now look cheap next to other markets in the region, or at any rate cheaper than they did. The average price/earnings ratio, which topped 14 in 2003, is now around nine, and falling. If, as economists expect, the recent easing of the oil price continues next year, and interest rates also decline, the market should start to recover. And the resuscitation of the shelved listings might give traders cause to celebrate—soberly, of course.